A Warning to Keir Starmer drawn from His Own Past: If You're Not Bold regarding Brexit and the EU, Your Party Challengers Shall Be.

Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.