A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."